Espn came out with it’s Fantasy Football preview magazine a few days back on the 17th, once again signalling the end of that small window of time my wife refers to as ‘when you have a life’, that starts from the day the Sharks get eliminated from the playoffs and ends the day I start obsessing over my fantasy team, and since I spent yesterday doing three mock drafts, I decided it was time to break out my list of RB’s I’m not drafting under any circumstances (With few exceptions).
Fantasy football is not difficult. Every league plays with the same guys and every year you’ve got the same teams on the top, and the same on the bottom. The only surprise is that routinely one of the top teams gets crippled by injuries(It happens sooner or later), and one of the bottom teams hits a couple of home runs, like the guy last year who picked Braylan Edwards, Randy Moss and Adrian Peterson in the 4th-6th rounds. I see allot of owners complain about their spot in the draft, something like:
"I had the 9th pick so I had to pick Alexander."
Nobody, in the world, won their league after wasting their 1st on Alexander, nobody. That's been true two years running.
Now let’s take this a step further and look at Cedric Benson of last year. He was a consensus 2nd and 3rd rounder and he was dropping into the 4th and 5th because people were scared of him because he'd done nothing to merit such a spot.(even his family members, who collectively took a Dylanesque "It's not fair for us to draft a family member we may have unfair information about" wouldn't touch him) Of course it was at this point owners started thinking to themselves:
“He’s no longer in a time share, he’s the unquestioned starting back on a run heavy team, 1200 yards 8 touchdowns isn’t a reach!”
What follows, disaster.
In one of my leagues he fell all the way to 48, where my buddy grabbed him(not enthusiastically). It seemed like a safe pick, as he was considered top thirty. Unfortunatly for my friend, look who went after him; Randy Moss(49), Braylan Edwards(52), Plaxico Burress(55), Clinton Portis(63), and Jamal Lewis(64).
My point is that if a guy is going to suck he needs to be removed from your board no matter how far they’ve fallen for the simple fact that when you draft a guy in the 4th round and he sucks, it doesn’t make for some sort of victory because the ‘experts’ recommend that he should have been drafted in the second. There's allot of land mines sitting in those draft mags just waiting for hapless saps to step on(Espn ranking Rudi Johnson as the 50th overall pick anyone?) So here’s my list, subject to change over the next two months of guys I won’t draft(With few exceptions).
The number on the left is where the espn ffb mag has them ranked and this list pertains soley to RB’s(I might get into QB’s on a later date). One more thing, my list from last year:
Larry Johnson, Shawn Alexander, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson, Edgerrin James, and Jamal Lewis
Chances are if you drafted the first two guys your season ended right there, and if you drafted Benson or Caddy you needed to make up with it with some deft drafting in the later rounds. I’d call Edge a push, though I still wouldn’t have drafted him knowing then what I know now, and I was wrong about Jamal Lewis, but a great offensive line will do that to you.
#8 Marshawn Lynch
He ran over a woman. He drove away while she was lying in the street and couldn’t even be bothered to park in his garage where people couldn’t see it from the street. Are we sure he didn’t go to USC?
Now here’s my take on him. If he can stay out of jail for the season(These things take time), and he slips to the 3rd or 4th round I might take a flier on him(if I only have one RB, don’t like anyone else and don’t see a WR I know will produce) He’s a huge risk. He may play better, he may play worse. Judging by the way he’s handled the incident so far I’m going to guess he plays worse.
Right now it looks like he won't get any jail time, but he may be suspended, so we'll see. If he doesn't get suspended that would move him into the top 20 overall.#10 Larry Johnson
Let’s see; his QB sucks, his offensive line sucks, his coach sucks, he’s 29, he’s coming off a major injury, his YPC has gone 5.2, 4.3, 3.5, but this year I bet it goes up to 3.8 or maybe even 3.9. Oh by the way, if your offensive line struggles, your offense struggles, your running back struggles, bottom line.
On top of all that he’s racist, so fuck him.
(Yes, if I’m sitting on the 93rd pick and he’s there I’ll put my ethics aside and draft him, but he’s not going to drop that far)
#18 Ronnie Brown
It takes two years to recover from an ACL.
(Unless you’re a hockey player, then it takes like four months)
This is the classic experts line of bull, btw. What's Brown's chance of being worth a second or third round pick? I give him 5-1. That's way too early to pick a guy coming off a torn ACL.
Of course when four picks later...#22 Edgerrin James
James is 30 years old and had four runs of over twenty yards last year. His YPC numbers in his two years with the cardinals are 3.4 followed by 3.8. Historically you don’t give a guy the rock 300 plus times a year if he can’t average better then 4.0 a carry, but hey, this is the Cardinals.
#26 Rudi Johnson
He broke down last year. The Bengals broke down. Even two years ago, when he was successful his YPC was 3.8. That doesn't bode well.
#28 Travis Henry
Though in all fairness they went to press before he was cut. So he’d really be ranked like 128 now.
(Actually, you know who could use a RB right now? The Texans…and unlike Benson and Alexander, he can still be productive, so I guess he really doesn’t belong on this list, does he?)
These next guys are all slam dunks. They won’t go until the later rounds anyway, and by then you want to be rolling the dice looking for sleepers, whereas these guys aren't waking up. The guys before this paragraph, hypothetically you can make a case for them(I can’t stress the word hypothetically enough here), but I’d look into drafting back up kickers before I’d draft the next four.
#36 Deuce McAllister
Torn ACL in his left knee last season, had microfracture surgery on his right knee over the winter. I said; Torn ACL in his left knee last season, had microfracture surgery on his right knee over the winter. He’s tentatively scheduled to return in november, of 2011.
He’s currently under negotiations with the Denver Titans.
(ask google) Typically, my rule is that if I can’t remember how long ago it was I’d consider drafting a guy then I don’t draft him.
I just felt that needed to be said. (Shawn Alexander, we have your spot already reserved for next year!)
So there you have it. You were warned.
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